Keeping India-Nepal Relations Stable in Changing Times
Political complexity, cultural affinities, and shared history have all always been present in India-Nepal relations. India's relationship with Nepal has become more and more important as it manages its foreign policy priorities, especially with regard to China.
Nepal's Political and Economic Unrest
Uncertainty and Restlessness: Nepal is presently going through a time of unhappiness, uncertainty, and restlessness. It seems like a never-ending journey to become a fully fledged democracy supported by reliable political institutions. Many problems have been raised by the hurried passage of a new Constitution that turned Nepal into a secular federal democratic republic. At the time of this transition, Nepal was still a fledgling democracy that had just emerged from a period of instability and lacked strong institutions and competent leaders to address the problems that came with it.
Discussions on Secularism and Monarchy: It has been controversial to choose to renounce its deeply ingrained Hindu traditions in favor of a secular identity. Many question if Nepal should return to its Hindu identity, which it gave up during talks to settle a ten-year insurgency between political parties and the Maoists. To guarantee that democratic principles are upheld and political boundaries are honored, there are also demands for the restoration of the monarchy. A federal system's efficacy is questioned as well because of worries that it could cause division in the nation.
Outside Factors
Changing Coalition Dynamics: There have been notable shifts in Nepal's political environment, especially with the alliances that the Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, sometimes known as "Prachanda," leads. The largest party in Parliament, the moderate Nepali Congress (NC), has been supplanted by the second-largest party, headed by K.P. Sharma Oli. Oli was well-known for taking a pro-China and anti-Indian posture during his last term as prime minister. The major left parties' fresh coalition was eagerly welcomed by the Chinese, who had long supported the initiative.
China's expanding Influence: Despite local warnings about potential debt traps akin to Sri Lanka's experience, China's influence is expanding in Nepal, as seen by high-level military visits and agreements on resuming collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Foreign Minister of Nepal broke with tradition by traveling to Beijing first to New Delhi, a move that demonstrated the country's evolving foreign policy objectives. China wants to become more powerful than India, which is why it is acting proactively in Nepal.
Security Concerns and the Historical Context
Historical Instability and Cross-Border Threats: In the final years of King Birendra's rule, political unrest and frequent administration changes made it easier for a Maoist insurgency to grow throughout Nepal. During this time, there was also a rise in cross-border terrorism, weapons trafficking, and smuggling against India, all of which were coordinated from Pakistan. Among these threats was the hijacking of flight IC 814 in December of 1999. The 'dual pillar' policy of upholding the king and multi-party democracy helped to keep India-Nepal relations stable in the face of these difficulties, encouraging collaboration between the two countries' intelligence services in order to thwart Pakistani meddling.
Present-day Security Risks: China actively targets India in Nepal, in contrast to earlier times. There are serious security hazards associated with Beijing's classification of China's backing for cross-border terrorist actions against India as "good terrorism". Pakistan seizes the chance to join forces with China in order to further destabilize the area. India has allies in the Indo-Pacific region as well as in the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States), but relying only on these relationships would not be enough if a new Great Game starts in an unstable Nepal.
India's Approach to Diplomacy
Keeping a Low Profile: India has prudently refrained from meddling in Nepal's domestic matters by keeping a low profile. But there is pressure from some Nepali quarters for India to provide guidance, especially on two controversial matters: whether Nepal should return to its Hindu character or reinstate the monarchy. India needs to exercise caution and give considerate answers to prevent giving the wrong impression.
Offering a Comprehensive Development Plan: In an effort to mend fences, India can put out a radical and sustainable development plan for Nepal. The improvement of life in a number of areas, including health, education, food and nutrition, child development, gender equality, and employment creation, should be the main goals of this plan. By resolving these issues, India may make itself a compelling alternative to Chinese initiatives under the BRI, guaranteeing that the welfare of the Nepalese people comes first in economic collaboration.
Strengthening Mutual Collaboration
High-Level participation: Investing in important sectors and fostering optimism are two benefits of high-level participation from India. Encouraging bipartisan agreement on significant initiatives will guarantee consistency and deadline-bound outcomes, especially in the face of political unrest. In addition to addressing population issues, strengthening industry ties between the two nations can help Nepal achieve equality and a sense of independence.
Utilizing Common Civilizational Assets: India ought to take advantage of the shared cultural resources that distinguish the bilateral relationship between India and Nepal. This comprises the historical, religious, and cultural links that unite the two countries. India may promote goodwill and mutual respect by highlighting these shared principles, which can help to overcome the big brother-small brother phenomenon that frequently ruins bilateral relations.
In summary
Stabilizing relations between India and Nepal is a major task for the incoming government in New Delhi, which is scheduled to assume office in June. The numerous issues that complicate this partnership must be addressed with a delicate balance between diplomatic delicacy and creative growth tactics. India can promote a more stable and cooperative relationship with Nepal by providing a comprehensive development roadmap and upholding high-level involvement, thereby mitigating foreign influences and guaranteeing long-term regional stability. It is India's responsibility to negotiate these difficulties and forge a more solid and durable alliance with Nepal.